The U.S. is projected to produce more crude oil than any other nation, including Saudi Arabia and Russia. The July 10, 2018 forecast from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) predicts that, in 2019, U.S. crude oil production will grow to 11.8 million barrels a day.
If Saudi Arabia and Russia increase their production, that might change. The OPEC cartel and some non-members (e.g., Russia) agreed in June to reduce their production caps that had contributed to recent price increases; but reversing course would likely bring Saudi Arabia or Russia back to the top.
The Soviet Union surpassed America as the world’s leading producer in 1974. Saudi Arabia then took over the lead in 1976. American energy production has skyrocketed with tech innovation – hydraulic fracturing (fracking) and horizontal drilling.
The U.S. has produced more than 10 million barrels a day since February, and an average of 10.9 million barrels a day in June. That was an increase from 10.8 million in May.
Link to EIA Short-term Outlook (July 10, 2018): https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/